I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how quickly AI is advancing, and I keep coming back to the same question: Are we really prepared for what’s coming? Not just technically, but economically and socially?
Last month, I spent some time diving into Thomas Kuhn’s concept of paradigm shifts—those moments when our fundamental understanding of something completely transforms. The more I read about AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), the more convinced I am that we’re standing at the edge of exactly this kind of transformation in economics. And honestly? It’s both fascinating and terrifying.
What Exactly Is a Paradigm Shift?
If you’re not familiar with Thomas Kuhn’s work, he was a philosopher of science who challenged how we think about scientific progress. In his 1962 book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Kuhn argued that science doesn’t just gradually accumulate facts over time. Instead, it occasionally undergoes complete revolutions that fundamentally change the frameworks within which scientists operate.
According to Kuhn’s theory, a paradigm is essentially a set of shared assumptions, values, and techniques that define legitimate work within a scientific community. During periods of “normal science,” researchers work within the boundaries of the accepted paradigm, solving puzzles but not questioning core assumptions.
The interesting part happens when anomalies start piling up—observations or results that can’t be explained by the current paradigm. Eventually, confidence in the existing framework erodes, leading to a crisis and then a scientific revolution where a new paradigm emerges and replaces the old one.
Think about the shift from the Earth-centered universe to the Sun-centered model, or from Newtonian mechanics to Einstein’s relativity. These weren’t just new theories—they represented entirely different ways of seeing the world.
AGI as an Economic Paradigm Shift
So what does this have to do with AGI? Everything, actually.
Our current economic models are built on a fundamental assumption: human labor is essential for production and income generation. This assumption has held since the beginning of economic thought. But what happens when AI can perform virtually any task a human can, but faster, cheaper, and potentially better?
Research from the IMF suggests that AGI could fundamentally change our economic trajectory. According to economist Anton Korinek, “the substitution of scarce labor by comparatively more abundant machines” could lead to both unprecedented economic growth and the potential collapse of wages for human workers.
This isn’t just another technological innovation—it’s a fundamental change to the rules of the game. And it matches Kuhn’s definition of a paradigm shift perfectly.
Three Core Economic Assumptions Under Threat
What makes the rise of AGI so disruptive? It challenges three foundational assumptions of capitalism:
Labor as the Basis of Economic Power: Our current system assumes human labor is essential. AGI threatens to enable near-zero marginal cost labor, potentially pushing human wages toward zero as workers become increasingly obsolete.
Wealth Distribution Dynamics: Currently, there’s at least some balance between labor and capital. AGI could intensify wealth concentration exclusively among those who own AGI assets, creating unprecedented levels of inequality.
Market Equilibrium: Traditional economic models like the Cobb-Douglas production function assume a balance between labor and capital inputs. AGI disrupts this by potentially eliminating the need for human labor entirely.
According to a recent paper on AGI and employment, the production function could shift from including human labor to one dominated entirely by AGI capital and AGI labor. The implications are profound—human workers might simply no longer be needed in the productive economy.
The Potential Economic Impact
Let’s be clear about what this could mean:
- Wage Collapse: As human labor becomes less valuable relative to AGI, wages could decline dramatically.
- Extreme Wealth Concentration: The owners of AGI and capital could accumulate virtually all economic surplus.
- Demand Crisis: With no wages, who buys the products and services produced? This creates what economists call a Keynesian paradox: firms produce more goods but consumers lack the purchasing power to buy them.
This isn’t science fiction anymore. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the pioneers of deep learning, has suggested that AGI might be realized within 5 to 20 years. That’s potentially within our lifetime.
From Scarcity to Star Trek: A New Paradigm
Speaking of science fiction, Star Trek fans have long been familiar with a concept called “Trekonomics” — the post-scarcity economic system depicted in the Star Trek universe. And it’s fascinating how closely it parallels what economists are now discussing in relation to AGI.
In the Federation of Star Trek, technology has effectively eliminated scarcity. Replicator technology can create almost any physical object from energy, automation handles essential services, and fusion energy provides nearly limitless power. As a result, money has become obsolete within the Federation, and people work not for financial gain but for personal fulfillment, societal contribution, and intellectual growth.
French economist Manu Saadia, who wrote a book called “Trekonomics”, analyzed this fictional economy and concluded that “post-scarcity is not so much a matter of material wealth or natural bounty, but an organizational option for society.” In other words, the technology to create abundance isn’t enough—we need new social and economic structures to manage that abundance equitably.
What’s remarkable is how the economic challenges posed by AGI mirror those solved in the Star Trek universe. Both involve:
- The automation of virtually all labor
- The need to rethink wealth distribution when work no longer determines income
- A shift from economic necessity to purpose-driven activities
- The question of how to maintain economic stability when traditional market mechanisms break down
The key difference? Star Trek portrays a successful transition to this new paradigm, while we’re still trying to figure out if such a transition is even possible in reality.
Possible Solutions to an Economic Paradigm Shift
If the paradigm is truly shifting, we need new ways of thinking about economics. Several possible solutions have emerged that could help us move toward a more Trek-like economy:
Universal Basic Income (UBI)
UBI has gained attention as a potential response to AGI-driven unemployment. The idea is to provide everyone with a regular stipend regardless of their employment status. This would ensure that everyone maintains purchasing power even as traditional employment opportunities diminish.
Historical experiments with UBI have shown improvements in health outcomes, reductions in poverty, and empowerment of marginalized groups. But scaling it globally would require rethinking taxation entirely—possibly including taxes on AGI capital.
Interestingly, Trekonomics has inspired a fan-led “Starfleet Party” that advocates for universal basic income as a path toward the post-scarcity future depicted in Star Trek. While this might seem fanciful, it reflects a growing recognition that UBI could be a stepping stone toward a very different economic paradigm.
Collective Ownership Models
Another approach involves public or cooperative ownership of AGI. Instead of allowing AGI to concentrate wealth among a small group of private owners, shared ownership models could distribute benefits more broadly.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund offers a template for how collective resource management might work—where the productivity gains from AGI would flow to everyone, not just private shareholders.
AGI as Infrastructure
We could also treat AGI similar to how we treat utilities or roads—as critical infrastructure accessible to all. This would require regulatory frameworks to ensure fair access and manage potential risks.
In Star Trek, replicator technology is treated as a public utility, with its benefits distributed equitably. While we don’t have replicators, AGI could function similarly as a public resource rather than a private commodity.
The Human Element: Beyond Economics
The economic implications are just the beginning. If AGI truly represents a paradigm shift, it forces us to reconsider fundamental questions about human purpose and meaning.
For centuries, work has been central to human identity. What happens when work, as we understand it, is no longer necessary for most people? How do we define purpose and meaning in a post-labor world?
Star Trek offers one vision: humans redirect their energies toward exploration, scientific discovery, artistic expression, and personal growth. In the Federation, people work because they want to contribute, not because they need to earn a living.
As Saadia puts it, the humans in Star Trek are “completely different from the 20th century humans when it comes to a conventional way of living. Being untroubled by belongings makes them have no interest in conspicuous consumption. They are most likely interested in things of a much higher nature such as the cultivation of the mind, education, love, art and, of course, discovery.”
Is this realistic? Perhaps not immediately. But it offers a compelling vision of what human society could become if freed from economic necessity.
Embracing the Uncertainty
Here’s where I think Kuhn’s insights are most valuable. He pointed out that competing paradigms are often “incommensurable”—they use different concepts and standards that make direct comparison difficult. We’re trying to envision a post-AGI world using pre-AGI concepts and values.
This means we need to approach this transition with humility. No one fully understands what a post-AGI economy might look like, just as medieval scholars couldn’t have envisioned modern capitalism.
What we can do is prepare for multiple scenarios, as Korinek suggests. We can stress-test our existing institutions and develop adaptive policy frameworks that can respond to changes as they occur.
Conclusion: From Science Fiction to Reality
The potential for AGI to create a paradigm shift in economics doesn’t mean we should panic—but it does mean we should prepare. Just as scientific communities eventually adapt to new paradigms, economic and social systems can adapt to a post-AGI world.
Star Trek’s vision of a post-scarcity economy might seem like pure fantasy, but it offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities we might face as AGI becomes reality. The key difference is that in Star Trek, the transition to this new paradigm has already been completed. We, on the other hand, are still in the early stages.
Thomas Kuhn showed us that paradigm shifts are not just changes in theory—they involve changes in worldview, methods, and standards. The rise of AGI demands exactly this kind of comprehensive rethinking of our economic assumptions.
Maybe we won’t achieve the utopian future depicted in Star Trek. But by recognizing the paradigm shift that AGI represents and proactively addressing its challenges, we can strive for a future where technology’s benefits are shared by all—not just a fortunate few who own the algorithms and machines.
What do you think? Are we headed for an economic paradigm shift? And if so, how should we prepare for it?